With the Vuelta done plenty of UCI ranking points have been added. To save you a click the story though remains the same with Lotto-Dstny and IPT set for promotion back to the World Tour in 2026, and Astana and Arkéa-B&B Hotels facing the drop.
If you want more details and some speculation and the sound of an alarm bell or two, read on.
Promotion-relegation? A reminder teams are ranked on the basis of their points haul from 2023, 2024 and 2025 and the top-18 teams make the cut for the World Tour in 2026 and beyond, at least in sporting terms as they have to prove they’ve got their finances and admin in order too.
You can see Cofidis in 18th place but note the gap as they’re 1,723 points ahead of rivals Arkéa. That’s no guarantee for Cofidis though as they’re having a terrible season this year and will lose two of their top-three points scorers in Axel Zingle and Guillaume Martin, the pair have scored almost a third of the team’s points this season. Still they’ve made new signings like Alex Aranburu, Emanuel Buchmann and Simon Carr but they’ll be required to score from the spring onwards. To reprise the old joke about the two hikers worried about encountering a bear, one turns to the other and says “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to out run you”. For now Cofidis just need to keep clear of Arkéa who so far haven’t announced any signings.
DSM Firmenich-Post NL have had a good Vuelta and Tour of Britain to get 726 points clear of Cofidis. Intermarché-Wanty though are having a bad season and having recently highlighted their financial woes, it is only speculation but these might have persisted as the team is still not making any big signings. Now they’ve got a star in Girmay and got it all right at the Tour de France… but that’s the point, he’s scored a third of their points and injury or illness at the wrong time year could be costly. Bahrain are the surprise flop of the season – Uno-X have scored more than them this year – but insulated from relegation worries thanks to a strong 2023 score.
Meanwhile Astana are so behind that relegation looks like a formality but they’ve responded by going on a shopping spree. The big question is whether the likes of Wout Poels, Sergio Higuita, Aaron Gate and Diego Ulissi can pull it off next year. In crude terms Astana are over 4,000 points behind Cofidis today so they need these new signings to deliver 1,000 points each just pull level. It’ll be a story to watch next year. All this assumes the new sponsor and investor XDS is on board and the licence renewal goes smoothly…
Talking of which it’s mid-September and has anyone heard any news about a replacement sponsor for Dstny? As well as the three year promotion and relegation cycle, all teams are vetted annually for their finances and admin and the short version is that Lotto-Your Name Here need to supply the UCI’s Licence Commission with their 2025 budget plans in the coming weeks, normally something you’d work once a new sponsor is on board. Only there’s no news, Belgian state lottery Lotto has said it can’t afford to carry the whole team. There’s a soft October deadline for tidy admin but things can go to December, as we’ve seen with other teams before. The problem here is that riders on the team don’t want to wait until December to find out they’re free to sign elsewhere. Hopefully everything’s in place as this is a decent team with good prospects… but we’ve all seen this story before.
Not to push the Lotto worries too far, but to pre-empt the inevitable question: if the team did vanish then only IPT would be promoted and Arkéa go from 19th place to 18th and safety, but just based on today’s numbers as the French team is 334 points above Uno-X and the Norwegian team seem to keep improving.
Back to things as they look today and Uno-X might not make the World Tour by 2025 but look good for regular invitations to the grand tours. Likewise Tudor Pro Cycling which has been big in the transfer market signing Julian Alaphilippe and Marc Hirschi. Both are great signings but will require clever management not to tread on each other’s toes as they’re both very similar riders. With Tudor scoring more and more points it’s increasingly looking likely that Total Energies are in a bind when it comes to invitations, especially for the Tour de France and if they’re not visible at the Tour then don’t expect the sponsor to stay for long.
Finally it’s worth putting away the magnifying glass and calculator just to look at the haul of UAE so far this season as they’ve already beaten their tally from last year and Tadej Pogačar is about to resume racing. He’s their top scorer with 9105 points, more than several teams have managed but this kind of thing happens in a winner-takes-all domain like sport. The team’s next best scorer is Marc Hirschi.
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