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    Smart money remains on Glasgow being a temporary Commonwealth Games fix

    The last time the Commonwealth Games was staged, two years ago in Birmingham, the BBC was so worried about enough big names showing up that it put in an unusual clause in its contract with the organisers. An insider takes up the story: “It was loosely worded, but it stated that if the big stars didn’t show up the BBC had the right to claw back some of its fee. But it was never used as once we had Dina Asher-Smith and Adam Peaty, the concerns went away.”

    That vignette says a lot about the reduced status of the Commonwealth Games. Can you imagine athletes skipping any other major competition? Or a broadcaster wanting a similar clause for, say, the Olympics or Champions League?

    While Birmingham 2022 ended up being a huge party, with great crowds, quality sport and just enough stars, its abiding legacy was of its stinking financial hangover – with costs estimated at £778m.

    If that is not staggering enough, the 2026 Games were due to come in at A$6.9bn (£3.5bn) before Victoria pulled out last year. The state’s auditor general was particularly damning, calling it “a waste of taxpayer money” with no “discernible benefit”.

    At that point, it faced an existential threat. Now, though, it has been given a kiss of life. On Tuesday the Scottish and UK governments approved a proposal for Glasgow to host a defiantly lo-fi competition in 2026. By the end of the week, the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) will have made it official.

    The TL;DR? There will be 10 events rather than 19, far less pomp and ceremony, and a vastly reduced budget of around £115m.

    As part of the deal, the Tollcross swimming centre will be modernised, while the number of seats in the Scotstoun tadium, which will host the athletics, is expected to rise from its 9,708 capacity. Competitors will be put up in university digs and hotels rather than in a shiny new athletes’ village.

    The other striking detail is that the money is not coming from the public purse. Instead, almost all of Glasgow’s budget – £100m of the £115m – will come from the A$380m (£194m) that Victoria paid in compensation to the CGF after pulling out in July 2023.

    So can this budget airline Commonwealth Games model – leaner, cheaper, and with no unnecessary frills – prove sustainable in the long term? That is the dream among supporters.

    Usain Bolt takes the acclaim after winning the 4x100m final at 2014 Glasgow in front of a packed Hampden Park. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The Guardian

    Such people are realists. They know that the Games is only a mid-tier event, which excels at giving developing stars and athletes from smaller nations a chance to shine. But they believe there is enough love across the Commonwealth to enable it to continue long past its 100th birthday in 2030.

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    Behind the scenes there is talk of South Africa being interested in hosting in six years’ time – especially if it is helped by any left over compensation money the CGF has in its vaults. That, too, provides optimism. Yet others remain far from convinced that a slimmed-down Games is a gamechanger. They note that staging the track and field at Scotstoun stadium is a far cry from Hampden Park, which had 44,000 people through its doors when Glasgow last hosted in 2014. It will be slimmer. But not in a good way.

    The counterpoint is that if Josh Kerr, Keely Hodgkinson and the top Jamaicans, Kenyans and Australians show up, who cares? But that assumes they will. Given other sports federations and competitions will already have dates in the diary for 2026 that could be harder to achieve.

    One fear is that even if the women’s 100m Olympic champion, Julien Alfred, and the world’s fastest man over 100m this year, Kishane Thompson, want to go to Glasgow they may be already committed to the Diamond League or Michael Johnson’s new Grand Slam Track League.

    But the most pertinent issue is that the CGF’s bulging war chest will not last for ever. At some point, whether it is in 2030 or 2034, a government will once again have to pump a considerable amount of money if they want to host a Commonwealth Games. The evidence suggests they will not get nearly enough back in return.

    Maybe that is too pessimistic. Perhaps Glasgow 2026 will indeed prove to be a daring new blueprint for the future. But the smart money remains on it being just a temporary stay of execution.

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