Photo Credit: EM Dash for Imagn Images
After the North Carolina Courage’s 1-1 draw with Racing Louisville to open their season, head coach Sean Nahas said, “We play a certain brand and it’s not going to be perfect all the time.”
The ‘certain brand’ Nahas is referring to is likely the Courage’s possession-based game they made part of their identity last season. In 2024, North Carolina possessed the ball, on average, 57% of the time. Their season-opener against Louisville was even better, as they secured 66% of the possession. But keeping the ball doesn’t necessarily translate to winning, as the Courage learned last year.
The Courage posted 15 shots, with six on target, and accumulated 1.3 expected goals against Racing. Those numbers aren’t alarming in a vacuum, but they are reminiscent of the anemic offense from last season that only managed to put up 1.23 goals per game, with an average of 1.3 expected goals, in the regular season. Given that the Courage returned players that accounted for 91.7% of their minutes played from last season – and that they acquired superstar Jaedyn Shaw from the San Diego Wave in the offseason – one may have expected a little more firepower from their offense.
North Carolina’s offensive predictability
Instead, the Courage’s offensive strategy was predictable, and at times, lackluster. North Carolina primarily relied on fullback Ryan Williams and their right flank to progress the ball down the pitch and create attacking sequences. And while Williams was a highlight on Saturday night, logging the most touches of any Courage player and consistently progressing the ball forward, by the time the second half came around, North Carolina’s game plan was abundantly clear.
Every sequence could be described as some variation of the following: build out from a three-back into the path of Williams, play a give-and-go with one of the deep-lying midfielders, and ultimately end up in the attacking third or the penalty area. In fact, 55% of the Courage’s passes into the box came from their right flank in this game.
The heavy reliance on Williams and personnel on the right side of the pitch went on for the vast majority of the game until the Courage began tapping in left fullback Feli Rauch, too. But Williams’ and Rauch’s statistics from this game were telling: Williams logged nearly 30 more touches and 16 more carries than Rauch in the same timeframe. Williams, number 13 in the below graphic, also clocked the most passes into the final third of any Courage player by a landslide.
Graphic courtesy of NWSL Analytics.
Fluidity in the final third
Though Williams was responsible for starting many of North Carolina’s attacking sequences, once the ball got into the attacking third, second-year player Manaka Matsubuko was the one who shined. Manaka was on the receiving end of the most progressive passes of any player in a Courage kit on Saturday, and she also logged the most touches in the attacking third and the Louisville 18-yard box. Manaka, who lined up at the No. 9 spot, played as more of a hybrid No. 9/10 on Saturday, often floating in and out of the spaces that Shaw left open.
That was by design. Speaking of the fluidity in Manaka and Shaw’s partnership in the post-game, Nahas said, “I give [Shaw] a bunch of freedom…she can drift and find different spaces, but we want to get her on the half-turn where she can be dynamic and take out players with the next pass.”
While Shaw’s responsibility was to link up play and put players on, that is not exactly what happened. According to Nahas, “[She] did that a couple of times, we just didn’t have runners really extending behind.” That offensive breakdown is evident in some of Shaw’s numbers: she attempted just 25 passes and carried the ball 11 times, both of which were the fewest of all players who played at least as many minutes as she did.
Should Courage fans’ alarm bells be ringing, given that Shaw was the biggest signing of their offseason? Absolutely not. One game doesn’t change the fact that Shaw is an exceptional passer. Fans of this club should remember that Shaw led all attacking midfielders in American Soccer Analysis’ passing goals added last year (0.06/96’, >1000 mins), and that this subpar performance was more likely a fluke than a 2025 regularity.
It therefore goes without saying that we should not – and cannot – make too many predictions about how this Courage team will look throughout the season based on their first performance of the season. According to Nahas, the entire team had been together for just three weeks of preseason, thanks to an international break. And the starting XI that Nahas rolled out against Louisville had only played together one time in preseason.
It could be that the team as a whole is not familiar enough with one another, or the Courage’s system, just yet. That said, hopefully there’s more to the Courage’s game plan than ‘drive up the right side and play into the box.’ Only time will tell.
All statistics courtesy of FBRef, unless otherwise noted.
