Stopped by the side of the road, Tadej Pogačar tries to get his chain back in place after a crash, leaving Mathieu van der Poel to ride away. This wasn’t the precise winning moment as Pogačar could still hope to catch his arch rival… but he never did. Once again the two riders dominated a race, while misfortune seemed reserved for others.
Overnight rain had plenty of starters nervous of the wet cobbles ahead. Jonas Abrahamsen was the first to attack but the peloton was raging at 60-65km/h as riders tried to break away. A move of eight went with Jasper De Buyst (Lotto), Kim Heiduk (Ineos), Markus Hoelgaard (Uno-X), Oier Lazkano (Red Bull), Jonas Rutsch (Intermarché-Wanty), Abram Stockman (Tietma), Rory Townsend (Q36.5) and Max Walker (EF).
Arkéa-B&B missed it and chased, given they won’t going to win they at least needed a rider up front but the team was weaker than the break. Then Tadej Pogačar came to the front en patron and the breakaway was validated. But they were only allowed three minutes.
As the bunch approached Troisvilles for the start of the cobbles a crash saw many fall, including Wout van Aert, and Jaspers Philipsen and Stuyven. This began Paris-Roubaix as an elimination race, as one by one riders were being undone. Positioning only counted for so much and it was “devil take the foremost” at times too. Just as Ineos surged to the front on the first pavé their leader Ganna punctured and he’d spend the rest of the day chasing.
Haveluy to Wallers is the section before Arenberg, still over 100km to go but like last year it was a determinant sector. Mads Pedersen attacked, then Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar came past him. Once on the tarmac Pogačar stood up on the pedals to add some more damage.
Arenberg was next. Pogačar took the lead and Van Aert tried to follow but seemingly the effort to follow cost him as he started to lose ground. Van der Poel came then took the lead, slaloming perilously past riders from the early breakaway like they were bollards. Nils Politt punctured here and that was the last Pogačar would see of his team mates.
Once out of the forest Van der Poel looked around then attacked but was caught. Then just as a group with Van Aert made it across Van der Poel attacked again, surging from a long way back in the group and opening a gap. Pogačar followed, so far so normal but he looked to be on the limit, grimacing and contorting himself into as low as position as possible and it took time to close the gap. Only Philipsen, Pedersen and Stefan Bissegger could follow.
Philipsen had been distanced on these cobbles but rejoined Van der Poel and Pogačar, in the moment he seemed to be floating. The world champion was chaperoned by two faster sprinters, he couldn’t afford to reach the velodrome with them. FranceTV’s moto reporter Thomas Voeckler, a man who knows a thing or two about economy in a breakaway, was admiring Pogačar’s turns for their economy, he was doing just enough to keep the trio together but no more.
Philipsen howeever was struggling on the Mons-en-Pevèle sector and Pogačar used the false flat after this to distance him for good. Van der Poel wouldn’t work so Pogačar had to press on. This worked and 175 riders were reduced to a duel with the two star riders of the spring classics.
But the elimination race was not over. On the Pont-Thibault sector with 38km to go Pogačar took a corner too fast and rode into the grass verge. He unclipped his right foot and planted it in the ground and did a forward roll. Upright and seemingly unscathed he was trying to get his chain back in place bu losing time before the team car arrived to give him a fresh bike.
It all cost him no more than 20 seconds. The scenario wasn’t a disaster. He had Van der Poel in sight and could even try to wear him out at a distance, to keep the Dutchman in sight and turn it the race into a time trial. He soon had Van der Poel at 15 seconds, 12 seconds even. But back on the pavé and Van der Poel was carving the corners to take time. Then Pogačar seemed to be winning on the tarmac. This duel was intense and the gap was still 22 seconds some 15km after the crash.
But as the gap rose to 30 seconds, the advantage was turning to Van der Poel. Still no cushion because if Van der Poel punctured or, improbably crashed, then Pogačar would be back in his slipstream.
Only here Pogačar stopped to change bikes, as if in search of a solution. It might have been imperative but this was ruinous. Instead of a Formula-1 style pit-stop or a cyclo-cross bike swap he was left standing idle at the side of the road. As FranceTV’s Voeckler observed, the UAE mechanic needed to unpick Pogačar’s third bike off the roof amid the racking instead of grabbing the usual stand-by and so by the time he got to the spare out precious time was lost. It felt an age but was only an elevent second wait, but add stopping time and re-accelerating and the gap was 45 seconds. Then 50.
And that was that. Van der Poel did puncture on the Carrefour de l’Arbre but had enough of an advantage and a quick swap so it cost him almost nothing. Approaching Roubaix at one point Pogačar’s second place seemed in play as he was struggling but the chasers were kept away. Van der Poel was straining and his efforts ensured he had the velodrome to himself for a victory lap. Pogačar came in to a roar from the crowd.
Behind Pedersen lead in Van Aert and Florian Vermeersch and the Dane won the sprint to make the podium with Van Aert in fourth, the story of his spring classics campaign.
The Verdict
A thrilling race. We rightly wowed at Milan-Sanremo for the “long range” move on the Cipressa, here the attacks began with over 100km to go thanks to Mads Pedersen, then Van der Poel and Pogačar traded attacks.
Paris-Roubaix is an exceptional race in many ways, most obviously for the brutal course. The cobbles create jeopardy, eliminating Pedersen by puncture was cruel. Pogačar’s crash though was more handling error rather than misfortune, after all Van der Poel made it around the same corner but an unsatisfying aspect as it prevented a direct contest. But the slender gap between the two provided plenty of suspense, a mano a mano at distance for some time with Van der Poel increasing his lead with every turn on the cobbles.
Van der Poel delivered a satisfying win, his third in a row. Arguably the strongest rider, he also won thanks to agility, both staying upright and augmenting his advantage in the corners. His Alpecin-Deceuninck team were strong in applying pressure and opening the race early, to their advantage and spectators alike. Lidl-Trek looked even better but one puncture and their plans were deflated; Pedersen on the podium seems fitting for the spring but it’s striking again how this trio have excluded the rest, from other contenders to entire teams. In a race where fate plays such a role they still stood on the podium.
At times Pogačar looked like an imp against golems but he took the fight to the classics contenders, even making moves on the pavé and the win might have been within his grasp. Had he not crashed then he might have found a way to unpick Van der Poel, we’ll never know. But everything else being equal, had Pogačar not crashed then he’d have been with Van der Poel when he punctured on the Carrefour de l’Arbre and so he would have found himself in the lead. Of course it’s not so simple but to settle the what-ifs? he’ll have to come back and try again.