The NWSL has established itself as the premier women’s football league globally, showcasing its thrilling unpredictability in match outcomes week after week. Since its launch in late 2012, the league has consistently offered one key appeal: the thrill of chaos is undeniably captivating.
However, concerns are mounting that the balance within the league could begin to diminish as it continues its rapid expansion of team numbers. The talent pool is not limitless; inevitably, there will come a time when the supply of elite players and coaches falls short. In last year’s NWSL GM survey conducted by ESPN, nearly all general managers highlighted parity as the league’s strongest asset. Yet, many expressed concerns regarding talent retention and the risks of over-expansion.
So far, that fear has not materialised. The last month of unpredictable NWSL outcomes showcased precisely what Berman and the general managers desire — and what the league’s rivals in England’s Women’s Super League and Women’s UCL still struggle to replicate consistently.
Several prominent clubs in England, France, and beyond are investing heavily, gaining esteemed reputations in the process. Yet, when it comes to on-field competitiveness, could it be that the league in question [NWSL] is the one that the global women’s football community should regard as the benchmark for excellence?
Predictable Europe Cannot Match the NWSL
Many of the premier leagues across Europe are characterised by an unfair advantage, and the same pattern can be observed in the UWCL as it concludes each season. Arsenal’s unexpected triumph in the second leg against Lyon at the end of April has thwarted what would have been yet another European final showdown between Barcelona and Lyon, the two clubs that have dominated the competition over the last nine years. In a stunning display, Barcelona overwhelmed English champions Chelsea, securing an impressive 8-2 aggregate victory in the other semifinal, thus proving the point in case.
It’s hard to dispute the notion that Barcelona stands as the pinnacle of talent in the footballing world, a claim supported by recent statistics. However, the NWSL sets itself apart with a broader distribution of talent across its teams, resulting in a more competitive landscape overall. In the latest Opta power rankings, an impressive eight out of the top 20 teams hail from the NWSL, showcasing a dominance that is double that of any other league.
At the pinnacle of Spanish football, it’s a fierce contest between two giants, as Barcelona strives to fend off Real Madrid’s relentless challenge in pursuit of a sixth consecutive league crown. Lyon has secured its 18th French league title in the last 19 years, while Chelsea celebrated their sixth consecutive championship in England on Wednesday. Last weekend, Bayern Munich secured their third consecutive Bundesliga title in Germany, a league dominated by just two teams since 2013.
As a prime example of the NWSL’s excitement levels being far superior to their European counterparts, we can look at the sportsbooks reviewed by Gambling.com and notice how different the price points of goals scored and money line odds can be! With leagues such as the Spanish division, the top teams will always present far superior odds to the less talented teams. Still, the same cannot be said for the NWSL, whose No.1-ranked teams can sometimes even present plus-money odds in home games depending on the opponent.
There’s no room for “boring” soccer in the NWSL
The NWSL considers these recurring outcomes to be unexciting and detrimental to their business model. Club proprietors are eager to pour resources into securing a chance at glory. Athletes are willing to enhance their skills by facing stronger opponents. Coaches thrive on having their concepts put to the test.
New Jersey/New York Gotham FC forward Esther González, a key player in Spain’s 2023 World Cup victory, currently tops the NWSL scoring charts with seven goals this season. Two years ago, she boldly asserted that every NWSL match feels akin to competing in the Champions League or facing off against Barcelona. That’s the reason she made the move from Real Madrid to the NWSL.
Jonatan Giráldez, who previously held the head coach position at Barcelona, made the move to the NWSL last year to take charge of the Washington Spirit. Balance is crucial not only for fans craving excitement but also for coaches and players alike: it’s the hidden ingredient that makes the NWSL special.
Not even the enduring balance of the NWSL can remain unchanged indefinitely
The 2025 season kicks off with exhilarating energy, underscoring that the NWSL’s assertion of parity remains firmly intact—for the time being, at least. However, looking ahead, the potential for the NWSL to lose its appeal looms large, and ensuring competitive balance stands out as perhaps the league’s most significant hurdle in the future.
The NWSL has made significant strides in recent years, increasing its number of teams from 10 in 2021 to an anticipated 16 for the upcoming season. While growth can be beneficial for the industry, it has also led to a dilution of both the talent pool among players and the quality of coaching available.
Last year’s results indicated that the league could be dancing with its Achilles’ heel. A staggering forty points distinguished the top team from the bottom, marking the widest gap ever recorded in NWSL history. The leading quartet—Orlando Pride, Gotham FC, Washington Spirit, and Kansas City—clearly distinguished themselves from the rest, boasting a significant 16-point cushion over the fifth-placed team.
The same quartet of teams continues to dominate the NWSL standings after six weeks of competition. While the sample size is limited, the data projections indicate that the same four teams will likely emerge as the leading contenders again. Their triumph is far from accidental. All four of the strategic and forward-thinking appointments have paved the way for the influx of some of the league’s top talents.
Competitiveness in the NWSL is under threat
This season marks a significant shift in the NWSL with the introduction of a new collective bargaining agreement that abolishes drafts and grants players full free agency. The draft serves as a cornerstone of balance in American sports, allowing the team at the bottom of the standings to secure the first selection and bring in a promising young talent to rejuvenate their roster. With the draft behind us, the elite clubs have the opportunity to bolster their squads by bringing in the next generation of talent eager to thrive in top-tier settings.
In addition to ESPN expansion rumors relating to the league having as many as 32 teams, these developments clearly indicate valid reasons for worry regarding the NWSL’s cherished competitiveness being at risk. Berman counters that the collective bargaining agreement requires each team to meet minimum spending levels. All teams are navigating within the constraints of the same salary cap.
Is the NWSL talent gap widening?
Is the divide growing between the top NWSL teams and those with less drive? Could it be that last year was just an outlier, and the latest performances are simply a return to the expected norm? Could it truly be detrimental if a handful of NWSL teams consistently excelled?
The NWSL is actively seeking those answers, but only time will tell. The league is well aware of its strengths and is clear about the direction it wishes to avoid.