As drivers and teams gear up for Sunday’s Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, Fox, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the new season has officially arrived. With that in mind, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series campaign.
Denny Hamlin will finally win a championship
Since the season finale, Hamlin has endured a whirlwind — a crushing loss at Phoenix, a courtroom fight with NASCAR, his father’s death and injuries his mother suffered in a house fire.
After winning six races in 2025 and coming agonizingly close to the Bill France Cup, it is now-or-never for Hamlin. As his career winds down, perhaps a return to the Chase format will benefit him. — Colby Colwell
All three RFK Racing drivers will make the Chase
The 2025 season was a disappointment for the RFK organization, with each of its three drivers — Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece — missing the playoffs. Buescher and Preece would have made the postseason field if the current format were in place last season, so it is not entirely out of the question that they make the Chase for real this time.
Keselowski was 20th in the final standings last season and was cleared to race in the Daytona 500 on Monday after suffering a broken leg during an offseason ski trip. But the 2012 champion should never be counted out. With consistency more important than ever — something that each of the three drivers excels at — don’t be surprised if all three are racing for a title. — Colby Colwell
Joe Gibbs Racing will take a step back in wins
The powerhouse organization combined for 13 wins in 2025 among Hamlin (six), Christopher Bell (four) and Chase Briscoe (three). Bell tacked on an All-Star Race win at North Wilkesboro, and Ty Gibbs won the inaugural In-Season Challenge despite remaining winless for his Cup Series career.
It would not be a surprise if all four were in victory lane at some point, or if they even surpass the 13 wins from last season. JGR will have strong competition, as Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske, which combined for 14 wins in 2025, are hungry for wins, too. — Colby Colwell
Multiple drivers will win their first race
Several drivers head into the 2026 season in search of their first Cup Series win. Two who should be at the top of the list are Carson Hocevar and Gibbs. If Hocevar can clean up his eight DNFs and Gibbs can take advantage of his speed for an entire race, both could easily cross that first win off the list.
Aside from them, Preece has already won the exhibition Cook Out Clash and is overdue for his first points-paying win, while rookie Connor Zilisch is one of the most-hyped prospects in a while. The cream will rise to the top like it always does, but multiple first-time winners should not be ruled out. — Colby Colwell
Even-year Joey Logano returns
There is something with Logano and even-numbered years, at least under the elimination-style playoff format. Since his first title in 2018, Logano finished third, first and first in each of the past three even-numbered years, winning all three of his titles during that span.
Whatever you want to make of that, he has 14 wins in those years, compared to just five wins in every other year in that timeframe. While a return to more of a season-long points system could present a challenge, don’t expect that to affect the three-time champion, who always seems to rise to the occasion. — Colby Colwell
Kyle Busch will go winless for a third straight year
The past two-and-a-half seasons have been the worst stretch of Busch’s entire NASCAR Cup Series career. The two-time champion and 63-time Cup Series winner missed the Cup Series playoffs in 2024 and 2025 and is winless over the past 93 races.
While there is some help on the way in the form of a new crew chief in Jim Pohlman, Busch’s struggles seem to be more about Richard Childress Racing’s decline in performance than Busch’s own abilities. RCR likely hasn’t turned around its entire Cup Series program in three months, and while Busch might be able to sneak into the Chase, it’s difficult to see a reality where he gets to victory lane in 2026. — Samuel Stubbs
Carson Hocevar will make the Chase
Hocevar’s performance has only improved since he began his rookie campaign in 2024. The 23-year-old driver recently signed a contract extension that will keep him with Spire Motorsports into the 2030s — a deal that wouldn’t have been signed if Spire didn’t believe in his ability behind the wheel.
Spire will give Hocevar plenty of fast cars this season. If he’s able to harness his talent and keep all four wheels on the ground, he should be in contention for — and able to win — a Chase berth. — Samuel Stubbs
Rookie Connor Zilisch will win a race
Expectations should always be tempered for rookie drivers, even Zilisch, who won 10 races in O’Reilly Auto Parts Series competition in 2025. The transition from the O’Reilly Series to the Cup Series is an astronomical jump, and even the best prospects usually take time to adjust.
However, it’s hard to imagine Zilisch not being in contention for at least one victory in 2026, most likely at a road course. Trackhouse can clearly build good road course cars — Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain and Shane van Gisbergen have all won road course races with the organization, and Zilisch is a road course ace in his own right.
Zilisch may not make the Chase, and his rookie year is sure to have a few stumbles. But a win in his first Cup Series campaign would prove what most of the garage already knows: The 19-year-old phenom is the real deal. — Samuel Stubbs
Shane van Gisbergen will win three road courses, but will ultimately miss the Chase
He is the prohibitive favorite for all four Cup Series road course races this season. SVG won five road course events in 2025 and is arguably the most talented road racer the sport has seen. He’s bound to win multiple road course races in 2026, and notching three of four isn’t a lofty goal.
However, a Chase berth could be slightly out of reach for the second-year driver. Van Gisbergen improved on ovals during the second half of 2025, but he’ll need to be consistent to keep pace with his competitors to stay inside the top 16 in the points. If he doesn’t run the road course table, a return to the postseason likely won’t be in the cards. — Samuel Stubbs
Alex Bowman will perform well enough to earn a contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports
Bowman is not the first Hendrick Motorsports driver to lag behind his teammates. He has made the postseason in seven of eight seasons with Hendrick and won eight races. But his performance hasn’t been up to par with Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron.
However, Bowman and crew chief Blake Harris have proved to be a consistent duo. Even if he doesn’t often get to victory lane, Bowman is more than capable of staying inside the top 10 in the standings for a prolonged period.
Bowman is in a contract year in 2026. He’ll need a big season to stay in the No. 48 Chevrolet long term, and a top-10 finish with a win or two sprinkled in should do the trick for him to stay in one of the most coveted seats in racing. — Samuel Stubbs