Snubbed MVP contender’s point to prove; Cotton’s supporting cast questioned — NBL Talking Pts

With two teams eliminated following the Play-In Tournament, the NBL26 semi-finals are locked and loaded.

The MVP and his Adelaide 36ers will face the South East Melbourne Phoenix, while title favourites the Sydney Kings take on the Perth Wildcats.

With huge expectations, compelling storylines and all eyes on the final four, we break down the biggest narratives in the latest edition of NBL Talking Points.

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WHO HELPS BRYCE COTTON?

The Adelaide 36ers have had one of the more intriguing NBL26 seasons. At times, they’ve looked like the best team in the league by a clear margin. At others, they’ve resembled a side in danger of slipping out of the top two.

Those concerns haven’t been about six-time MVP Bryce Cotton. Instead, the spotlight has fallen on the supporting cast and the inconsistent performances that have prevented Adelaide from establishing themselves as a true heavyweight like the Sydney Kings or South East Melbourne Phoenix.

Cotton has been dominant all season, averaging 25.7 points, 7.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 3.6 rebounds, while shooting 43.8% from the field and 38.1% from three. Outside of him, Adelaide’s most reliable performer has been Zylan Cheatham, who is averaging 11.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, four assists, and just under one block and one steal per game.

Beyond that duo, inconsistency has plagued key names including Isaac Humphries – who opened the season strongly – along with Dejan Vasiljevic, John Jenkins, Flynn Cameron and Nick Rakocevic.

The Phoenix present a major challenge with their tempo. They rank second in pace across the regular season and finals, consistently speeding opponents up on both ends. That pressure will test Adelaide’s defence and offensive execution.

Where the 36ers can strike is on the offensive end.

The Phoenix allow opponents to shoot 47.9% from the field – the second-worst defensive mark in the league – and 34.8% from three, tied for worst in the NBL. Adelaide, meanwhile, rank second in field goal percentage (46.9%) and lead the league from deep at 35.9%.

If the 36ers can break the Phoenix full-court pressure and get cleanly into their half-court sets, they’re a genuine chance to take control of the series.

Head coach Mike Wells will need his frontcourt – which he has labelled the “three best bigs in the league” – to fire. Their presence is critical to creating space for Cotton, stretching the defence, and keeping Phoenix defenders guessing in the pick-and-roll.

This series may ultimately hinge on whether the Phoenix can contain Cotton – something they haven’t managed so far. In four meetings this season, he’s averaged 25.8 points, 6.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals against them.

If Phoenix do succeed in slowing him down, Adelaide must find secondary scorers and consistent contributors to stay alive – especially with some, including NBL champion Damon Lowery, predicting a Phoenix sweep.

‘BEST BIG THREE’ MUST STAND UP AGAINST KINGS

Following the Perth Wildcats’ win over Melbourne United, Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. made a bold statement: “I think we’re the three best in the league.”

Now, with a semi-final series against the Sydney Kings looming, Perth’s star trio must deliver if the Wildcats are to pull off an upset in the best-of-three showdown.

The challenge is clear.

Perth failed to beat Sydney in all three meetings this season, losing by an average margin of 23 points. In those defeats, the Wildcats’ big three struggled to make their usual impact.

Lual-Acuil has averaged 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, two assists, one steal and 1.3 blocks against the Kings while shooting 42% from the field – well below his season output of 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.7 blocks on 55% shooting.

His most recent outing against Sydney summed up the battle. He finished with 12 points, three rebounds and two assists, with Tim Soares disrupting his rhythm throughout.

Running mate Kristian Doolittle has been a force all season, but the Kings have also limited his influence. Across three matchups, he’s posted 12.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists on just 37% shooting and 22% from deep.

That’s a sharp drop from his season averages of 17 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists, numbers that have made him one of the league’s most reliable forwards.

The third piece of Perth’s trio, Dylan Windler, has also found the Kings a tough matchup – though context matters. He logged just seven minutes in the first meeting and can realistically be judged on the second.

In that contest, Windler produced 14 points, eight rebounds, two assists and a block – solid numbers, but still around or slightly below his season averages of 13.1 points, seven rebounds and 2.2 assists, while shooting 49.2% from the field and 37.7% from three.

If Perth are to stay alive in this series, their stars must replicate the level they produced against United.

Lual-Acuil dominated with 28 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks on 64% shooting.

Doolittle delivered 24 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals. Windler added 18 points, nine rebounds and three assists, knocking down threes at 66.7%.

The formula is proven – but doing it against Sydney is another task entirely. The Kings enter as overwhelming favourites. The Wildcats embrace the underdog tag.

Now, their “best big three” must prove it.

CAN THE PHOENIX MAKE THEIR FIRST GRAND FINAL SERIES?

When the South East Melbourne Phoenix dismantled the Perth Wildcats, they sent a clear message to the entire NBL – they’re a genuine finals contender.

Their dominance was built on both ends of the floor.

In the 111-94 victory, the Phoenix forced 17 turnovers, collected 12 steals, and controlled the glass 43-37, including a commanding 17-8 edge in offensive rebounds. They also shot an efficient 49.4% from the field, showcasing the balance between defensive pressure and offensive execution.

Nathan Sobey continued his career-best season, leading the charge with 24 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals, shooting 50% from the field. He was well supported by Owen Foxwell, who added 18 points, four rebounds, five assists and four steals in a high-impact performance.

The depth also shone.

Bench guards Angus Glover and Ian Clark proved decisive. Glover produced 12 points, three rebounds and three assists, while Clark poured in 16 points in just 15 minutes, providing instant offence.

The Phoenix’s defensive identity has troubled teams all season. Their relentless full-court pressure disrupts opposition flow, preventing sides from settling into their half-court sets and forcing rushed decisions.

They’ll aim to replicate that blueprint against the Adelaide 36ers – who enter the series off a longer break, a factor that could impact rhythm and sharpness.

The season series sits at 2-2, but recent history is telling.

The Phoenix won the last two meetings 97-77 and 108-89 – both at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, where the 36ers posted a strong 12-6 home record this season.

Those wins came by an average margin of 19.5 points, suggesting the Phoenix have found a formula that works.

Offensively, they hold another edge. South East Melbourne average 101 points per game across the season and finals, and their multi-option attack presents problems for an Adelaide side that has struggled defensively in big games.

That spells concern for coach Mike Wells.

This shapes as a tough, physical series – but based on the Phoenix’s complete performance against Perth and their recent success in the matchup, there’s a growing belief they’re primed to break through and reach their first Grand Final series.

THE ‘SNUBBED’ MVP’S CHANCE TO WIN AN NBL CHAMPIONSHIP

Across the back end of the season, the NBL world has aligned on one clear belief – the Sydney Kings are the championship favourites, and it’s theirs to lose.

The Kings closed the regular season at 24–9, riding an 11-game winning streak into finals. They also hold a dominant 3-0 record over the Perth Wildcats this season, winning convincingly in every matchup. With elite depth and one of the greatest coaches in league history at the helm, Sydney will be eager to take care of business on Wednesday night.

For Kendric Davis – the MVP runner-up behind Bryce Cotton – the focus is simple: banners, not ballots.

Speaking at the NBL Finals Launch, Davis made it clear where his priorities sit.

“Yeah, like coach said, just win something that they can’t vote on. You know, that’s how I look at it,” Davis said.

“Just win a championship, that’s all that matters.”

That mindset has fuelled him all season.

“I find anything to motivate me, so yeah, it was just another fuel to the fire,” Davis said.

“But I got teammates I gotta play for, coaches that expect greatness from me. So, more than that, we gotta win a championship.

“That’s been the main goal since I got here. So, you gotta keep the main goal the main goal.

“And I think if you ask Bryce, would he trade that MVP for a championship, I think he — everybody would agree they would. So, that’s what, as a city, we hoping we can do.”

Now, the spotlight intensifies.

Davis carries the weight as Sydney’s superstar – the engine of a title favourite and the player with the most to prove after falling just short of MVP honours. For a Kings side carrying enormous expectations, his leadership and poise will be critical.

If Davis can steady the group and lead from the front, Sydney won’t just be favourites on paper – they’ll be on track for another Grand Final series.