Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth battling the powerhouses for a Champions League place. No one predicted that.
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There is only a third of the Premier League season remaining and the race for the top four has arguably never been more intriguing.
Liverpool appears set to have one hand on the title, eight points clear of second-placed Arsenal, who have a game in hand, but the next rung down is where things get fascinating.
Nottingham Forest third, Manchester City fourth and Bournemouth fifth.
The latter jumped into the top five after Forest, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Newcastle all dropped points last weekend.
Forest have won 14, drawn five and lost six, while Bournemouth have won 12, drawn seven and lost six.
It reads like a Forest or Cherries fan plugging away on Football Manager for hours to get their team to dizzying heights, but supporters in England’s midlands and on the south coast better stop pinching themselves.
They are not dreaming. This is real.
The struggles of regular top six clubs Manchester United and Tottenham, along with Champions League Round of 16 bound Villa slipping in the league, presented opportunities, and Forest and Bournemouth have snatched them with both hands.
The Forest story is famous.
A powerhouse decades ago with back-to-back European Cup victories in 1979 and 1980 under legendary manager Brian Clough.
A year before their first continental breakthrough, Forest won the English top flight and they were runners-up the season after.
But following relegation from the Premier League in 1999, they fell into the football abyss.
Forest did not return to the Premier League until 2022 and barely avoided relegation by finishing 16th and 17th in their first two seasons back in the top tier.
Bournemouth were promoted from the Championship in the same season as Forest and initially found themselves in the bottom half of the table too.
A 12th place finish last season was preceded by coming 15th in their prior campaign.
Unlike Forest, however, Bournemouth is not a club with a rich pedigree.
Its first season in the Premier League came under now Newcastle boss Eddie Howe in 2015/16 and a ninth-place finish in their second season was the club’s best result in the top flight.
Years of mediocrity did not show too many hints of a breakout campaign in Bournemouth’s case, nor a stunning revival in Forest’s case.
But the dream of Champions League nights at the City Ground or the Vitality Stadium is alive and well, and this how they have put themselves in the hunt for midweek action against the best clubs in Europe.
Here is how they did it.
FOREST’S KIWI FRONTMAN
Like Forest’s, Chris Wood’s story is a fairytale.
The 33-year-old captain of the New Zealand national team has remarkably played for 12 different clubs in England.
He even went through a three-year period where he was sent out on loan six times by West Bromwich Albion.
Wood bounced around the various tiers of English football after moving to the UK as a 16-year-old to chase his dreams, and now the Forest talisman is a bonified star.
The six-foot three striker is third in the golden boot race.
He has netted 18 goals so far this campaign, highlighted by a hat-trick in Forest’s 7-0 rout of Brighton earlier this month, to only sit behind Mohamed Salah (24) and Erling Haaland (19).
It is his best Premier League season, and he still has 13 more opportunities to add to his tally.
“When they talk about Mo Salah and Erling Haaland – they mention Chris Wood in the same breath – you can’t compete with that,” Wood’s high school coach former New Zealand international Mike Groom told Sky Sports.
“It’s theatrical, it’s magical, it’s the stuff of dreams and kids’ dreams are fuelled by those images and that exposure.
“We’re still a rugby-playing country, but Chris is single-handedly beginning to change that.”
Wood’s height automatically makes him an aerial threat as a target man, he has scored six headed goals this season, the most in the league, but his finishing is still underrated.
In fact, it is lethal.
Wood has had 28 shots on target for the season, and scoring 18 of them makes him the most effective of any of the Premier League’s top strikers in front of goal.
New Zealand’s record goal scorer, who is also nearing the record for most appearances for his country, has also endeared himself to football fans because he is not blessed with all the attributes of the likes of Salah and Haaland.
The biggest difference is pace.
Wood is not a quick player, and the fact he lacks speed seemingly contradicts the fact that Forest prefers to play counterattacking football.
But he makes it work by timing his runs perfectly and seizing big moments.
In some ways, it makes little sense but so has his entire football journey.
“It’s definitely exceeded what I dreamt of when I was a kid and hopefully, I’ve got a lot more I can achieve to make it an even better dream,” Wood told Sky Sports.
“I want to keep the path open for New Zealanders to hopefully make it into the Premier League one day – I want to grow that generation of new kids wanting to play football and wanting to dream of doing the best they can and ending up in the biggest league.”
BOURNEMOUTH CREATE CHAOS
Bournemouth’s blueprint in attack is not dissimilar to Forest’s.
The two sides are comfortably the Premier League leaders for playing fast and direct football.
They sit back and defend resolutely, and when they win the ball back, they are off to the races.
Once the ball is in their attacking half, they press high and try to force turnovers in dangerous areas.
It makes for exciting games to watch, and Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola has been heaped with praise this season for his tactics.
“I sometimes value much more a player carrying the ball and forcing things to happen,” Iraola said in an interview with The Independent.
“We have to prepare [positional] patterns, but we cannot just prioritise them. If you can see that you don’t have a teammate ahead, forget about the pattern, just drive the ball and try to force things to happen. I want him to attack first.”
Meanwhile premierleague.com’s Alex Keble summed up the essence of their play as “disruption”.
“High risk, high reward: that’s the mentality of Iraola and his team, whether in hounding the ball with an all-action and full-pitch press or piercing opposition lines with sharp vertical football and attacking overloads,” Keble said.
“Perhaps the best word to encapsulate their tactical approach is “disruption”.
“Disrupt the other team’s play with furious pressing, and disrupt the expected rhythms of your own attack with improvisations and surges forward in high numbers.”
That philosophy has brought out the best in Justin Kluivert, who has scored 11 goals so far this campaign, four more than last season.
The Dutchman has really found his groove in the Premier League in recent times.
He was player of the month in January for scoring five goals and recording two assists in four appearances, of which Bournemouth won three and drew one.
The highlight of his season so far was a hat-trick, and an assist, in a 4-1 away win against Newcastle who were previously unbeaten in nine matches before that January fixture.
That victory was followed up by a 5-0 victory against Forest, where Kluivert contributed a goal and an assist to help end Forest’s eight-game unbeaten run.
Knocking off several in-form teams led to Iraola taking home manager of the month, and David Brooks’ stunning volley against Everton made it a clean sweep of the awards by winning goal of the month.
All of that came amid a length injury list, including strikers Evanilson and Enes Unal.
But Kluivert’s breakout combined with the superb form of fellow attackers Dango Ouattara and Antoine Semenyo, who have scored seven goals apiece this season, has prevented injuries from being an excuse.
No matter who is on the sidelines, once Bournemouth wins the ball back there are simply too many runners for opponents to attack.
Remarkably, one would expect such a style of play to make them vulnerable at the back.
But Iraola’s side do not play a high line, and they have the equal-third best defensive record in the league, alongside Forest, conceding 29 goals so far. Only Arsenal and Liverpool have been stingier at the back.
They key has been the centre back pairing of Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi, a combination Iraola landed on during the season.
In the 13 games they have started together, Bournemouth have lost once, to Liverpool.
Zabaryni is the rock that has played every minute this season, while 19-year-old Huijsen has been a revelation.
“Huijsen is undoubtedly the star of the two,” Keble wrote.
“Signed from Juventus for around £15 million last summer, his strength in the air, composure in possession, and – crucially – assertive front-foot style have catapulted Bournemouth to new heights.”
FOREST’S ELITE DEFENCE
ESPN’s Bruce Schoenfeld summed up Forest’s defensive brilliance in writing that manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s “football has hardly changed even though instead of a relegation battle, he has European qualification in his sights”.
Forest defends like their life depends on it.
They have comfortably made more clearances than any other team, including the equal most amount of clearances off the line.
They are level with Liverpool for the most number of clean sheets with ten.
Goalkeeper Matz Sels has punched away the aerial more than anyone else.
They are desperate.
And they are bringing an enormous amount of pride to the club’s greats.
“I haven’t watched a better pairing at the back than Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic in my 50 years of watching Forest,” former England and Forest midfielder Steve Hodge said on BBC Radio last month.
“I really mean that – pound for pound what they are as footballers and as a pair,” he added. “They have everything. As a pair, they complement each other perfectly and they both seem to be calm characters even under severe pressure.”
Milenkovic joined from Fiorentina last summer and the 31-year-old Serbian is in many pundits’ team of the season so far.
He is an old-fashioned, no-nonsense centre back whose heading ability has led to him scoring two goals as well as clearing many attacking threats.
But in the coming games, Forest face arguably the biggest defensive test of the season.
Away at Newcastle, home to Arsenal and home to Manchester City are their next three league games.
They passed with flying colours earlier in the season, defeating Liverpool at Anfield and taking a point from them at home.
That shows that there is little to doubt that Forest’s steeliness will remain.
BOURNEMOUTH’S EXCELLENT ROAD RECORD
A major part of Bournemouth’s success has been their impressive away record.
The Cherries have won six, drawn four and lost three of their matches on the road this season, including going unbeaten in their last seven away games.
That streak has included a pair of 2-2 draws against rivals for the European places Chelsea and Fulham, as well as the Newcastle win mentioned earlier.
Their most recent away win was a 3-1 win against cellar dwellers Southampton in a south coast derby, and post-match Iraola identified fast starts as the reason for their away success.
“I think it’s key, especially when you play away,” he said.
“I think we are having good starts. I remember last games, Newcastle away, Everton the other day.
“Even the two goals in 16 minutes, but in the first minute I think we had two corners for us.
“It’s a good start and a message that we are coming here and we want to win this game and we are not happy with the 0-0 and we want things to happen quickly.
“Also, I think they are a team that now is aggressive in the press. I think there were spaces behind them. There were spaces behind us.
“The game could go very open and I’m happy, especially first half, I think we controlled the game very well.”
Their ability to get results on the road will be severely tested later in the season as they visit Arsenal and Manchester City in the final four games of their campaign.
They could be vital to their European hopes.
