The biggest moment of the Socceroos 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has arrived.
Weren’t we there five days ago? Yep, all of Australia’s remaining three games in the third round are likely to be played with an all-or-nothing undercurrent.
Next up, China in Hangzhou tonight (10pm AEDT kick off) and once again it is must win.
PROJECTING CALM WHILE THE STAKES ARE HIGH
Milos Degenek made his first appearance for the Socceroos in 528 days last week when he was sent on as a second half substitute against Indonesia in Sydney.
The versatile defender, now with 46 caps to his name, is tailor made to handle the eve of a match like the one that looms against China.
Usually, a player guaranteed to feature in the game would accompany coach Tony Popovic to the final press conference. Degenek might just be in line for cap number 47 given his presence in-front of a packed media room or maybe he was sent to handle questions about pressure like Roger Federer used to hit a cross-court backhand or Ricky Ponting a pull shot.
Those who have followed Degenek’s journey in life and football would’ve known what was coming when he was asked about the magnitude of the game. His perspective is shaped by the testing route his family took to even get to Australia in the first place from Croatia. The 30-year-old has told stories of a childhood spent dodging bombs in underground bunkers.
“I think there’s no pressure. Pressure is something that when you wake up in the morning and you have to provide food for your family; that’s pressure. This is just joy and love,” said Degenek.
“The fact that we do this, we’re very grateful and we’re very happy to be able to play in games like this that are of very high importance.”
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FITNESS OF THE SQUAD
Popovic has 25 fit and healthy players to choose from.
Strikers Adam Taggart (groin) and Kusini Yengi (hamstring) were left behind in Sydney and they’ve since returned to the Perth Glory and Portsmouth in England respectively.
Mitch Duke was recalled to the squad at short notice after initially missing selection due to a lack of game time and goals at Japanese side Machida Zelvia, while Western Sydney Wanderers forward Brandon Borrello was sent on when Taggart was substituted at half-time against Indonesia.
Popovic was giving little away when asked about the make-up of his strike force.
“Mitch has come in. He’s looking good, he looks sharp and well. He’s very accustomed to the Socceroos shirt and what’s required so he’s fitted in easily,” he said.
“We have options for [tonight] in that striker position and we have some ideas that the players are aware of.”
SET PIECE PSYCHOLOGY
The Socceroos scored two goals from corners against Indonesia and in the psychology stakes, defender Cameron Burgess believes that could help Australia before a ball has even been kicked in Hangzhou.
Australian players had been used to running around the region and using their size and strength to dominate set pieces. The Socceroos scored four set piece goals from six games in the second round of World Cup qualifying. One came in each of the first four outings.
It has led to a quirk where injured centre back Harry Souttar has the equal fourth most goals of any Socceroo that is still playing professionally. Only Mathew Leckie (14), Jackson Irvine (13) and Mitch Duke (12) have more. The defender is level on 11-goals with Jamie Maclaren. But Australia had only scored one goal from a set piece from its last eight World Cup qualifiers prior to kick off against Indonesia at Allianz Stadium on Thursday night. Lewis Miller and Irvine both nodding home from corners signalled that a key weapon in the side’s arsenal was firing again.
“If you look across world football, set pieces play a massive part in the game,” said Burgess.
“They’re a huge weapon and we see it as such, and then you have the psychological factor where, if you’re scoring goals from set-pieces, you’re going up with that extra little thing in the back of your mind that we can score off this and then the opposition feel the same way.”
The 1.94m Burgess, who plays for Ipswich Town in the Premier League, hopes China was paying attention to the rout of Indonesia and the way Australia cashed in on corners.
“They’re obviously going to be worried about that I guess and that’s just human nature, that’s the psychological factors in how the game of football works. They’re huge weapons for us and we’ve always seen it that way and that’s something we definitely work on.”
WHAT WILL CHINA BRING TO THE TABLE?
The last time Australia played China was Popovic’s first match in charge. The new era got off to a shaky start with China scoring first at Adelaide Oval in October. That’s one of just six goals China has scored in seven games as the Socceroos recovered to win 3-1.
Burgess believes Australia will have to ride out an early onslaught.
“They came out firing and obviously got the goal as well. They’re a pretty direct team and look to do things quickly,” he said.
“We’re expecting a fast start. The same as the other night really so we have improvements to make on that and hopefully we can start the game better than we did the other night.”
The other night Burgess is referring to is the 15-minute period where Indonesia put Australia under immense pressure in Sydney; a period where they could easily have been 2-0 down and on the ropes. The fact the Socceroos recovered to win 5-1 showed maturity and character.
While this game could follow a similar pattern – China sit in last place in group C and must win to have any hope of securing an automatic qualifying spot to the World Cup next year – Australia’s quality should see them through if they can take their chances like they did against Indonesia. And they will have their chances. China’s opponents have had an average of 13.71 shots per game during the third round and enjoyed 72% of possession.
“They’re going to be coming out swinging,” said Burgess.
“They’re playing at home in-front of what looks to be a big crowd as well. Under no illusions it is going to be a difficult task for us. We need to stamp our authority on the game and do what we can do to hurt them as well.”
TIME FOR BURGESS TO LEAD THE BACKLINE
Any side would struggle without the giant presence of Harry Souttar, but as the towering Socceroo rehabilitates a ruptured Achilles tendon, the responsibility for organising the central defensive trio is likely to fall on the broad shoulders of Burgess again.
“I think I put that leadership pressure on myself a little bit anyway,” said Burgess.
“I’ve been doing that for a number of years. I think it comes with age and experience.”
Popovic wasn’t happy with Australia’s backline against Indonesia. He felt they “weren’t great,” on edge and “a little bit sloppy.”
Burgess has struggled for consistent game time at Ipswich this season and while his timing and movement looked a little off initially against Indonesia, he insists he still feels sharp. Burgess’ 11 Premier League appearances have included minutes against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Manchester United to name a few. A similar situation faced good mate Souttar last season, who was limited to four games in all competitions at Leicester but enjoyed the continued confidence of former Socceroos boss Graham Arnold. Burgess is hoping the national team can also offer him refuge.
“It’s not great not playing. I’d love to be playing every minute of every game as would everyone. However, the one upside is how hard we train there,” said Burgess of life at a top flight club.
“You get a real buzz because you’re here to play games. When you do get the chance to play it’s a great feeling. So, coming into camp to try and play minutes and help the team you get that adrenaline buzz.”
THE STATE OF PLAY
Australia sits second in group C behind Japan. Three points against China will see them stay there and allow the side to prepare for the final window in June against Japan and Saudi Arabia with confidence.
The Socceroos are on 10 points with Saudi Arabia on nine and the chasing pack of Indonesia, Bahrain and China on six.
The reward for finishing first or second in the group is a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.
Third and fourth from each of the three groups progress to the fourth round and will be split into two groups of three. The group winners there also automatically qualify for the expanded 48 team tournament.
The runners-up of each of those groups advance to the fifth round for a home and away showdown. The winner advances to an inter confederation play-off for the final spot at USA, Canada and Mexico.
The fourth and fifth rounds are appointments the Socceroos are desperate to avoid.
