Former Socceroos coach Graham Arnold tried to warn anyone who would listen.
Qualifying for the 2026 World Cup wouldn’t be easy.
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FIFA’s decision to expand the tournament from 32 teams in Qatar to 48 in Canada, USA and Mexico made it a harder message to sell.
After all, the Socceroos have qualified for the last five editions of football’s showpiece event. How on earth could Australia miss out with double the spots on offer through Asia?
Arnold had raised the alarm time and again about the record amounts of investment being ploughed into national team programs across Asia – teams Australia had rolled through with relative ease in the past.
His warning, in some respect, has come to fruition during this qualifying campaign.
The Socceroos are enduring another rocky road to a World Cup. The latest speed bump in the route will come in Bahrain on Wednesday morning (AEDT) where Australia can either keep their fate in their own hands or face two agonisingly tense international windows next year.
BAHRAIN PRESENTS A BIG CHANCE
The Socceroos currently sit second in Group C during the third round of qualifying but have just one win to their name. No second placed side, in any of the other qualifying groups, has fewer victories.
Second place presents the golden prize of automatic World Cup qualification come the final international window in June next year.
The only reason they are still in charge of their own destiny is because other sides have continually let opportunities to take control of their own fate slip.
Saudi Arabia, perceived from the outset as a fellow group heavyweight, like the Socceroos, have one win, three draws and one defeat.
China, in fourth place, have one more victory to their name than Australia, but have lost three of their five qualifiers.
The only pattern is that there isn’t one.
Consistency, apart from Japan who sit seven points clear at the top, has been elusive across the board.
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Under Tony Popovic there are signs the Socceroos are starting to find their rhythm. Since taking over in October he has secured five points from three games. It has been a solid, but not spectacular start.
The game against Bahrain is must win; especially with Saudi Arabia taking on last placed Indonesia in Jakarta.
The reality of their situation has breached the walls of the camp. Harry Souttar was short, but sharp when asked about it in his final appearance before the cameras prior to the match in Riffa.
“Very important,” the giant centre back said.
“Obviously you can see the table, apart from the leaders Japan, you see how tight it is. It’s a huge game for us and it’s one we’re going to try and do our best at to get the three points.”
Australia, Saudi Arabia and China all enter this matchday on six points with Bahrain on five.
The margins are slim.
KEEP THE EMOTIONS IN CHECK
Bahrain set the first dose of third phase drama in motion back in September.
The world number 76 left the Gold Coast with a 1-0 win in what turned out to be Arnold’s second last game in charge after a six-year tenure.
Bahrain not only frustrated the Socceroos via an 89th minute Souttar own goal, but also by staying on the turf for lengthy periods after any contact.
Stand-in captain Jackson Irvine believes the side let it become “the story of the game” and the teams leadership group has vowed to not let their opponents get under their skin again.
“Of course, you want to maintain that discipline and not let it rattle us away from our game, but at the same time, you don’t want to let teams get away with certain kinds of behaviour and you need to have each other’s backs,” Irvine said.
“Probably in the first game against them, we didn’t find that balance well enough.
That’s the biggest thing you want to avoid. You want that drama to not be the centre of the game. You want our performance to be the main focus.”
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SOCCEROOS MUST BE RUTHLESS IN FRONT OF GOAL
The Socceroos have taken 58-shots during the third round with 14 of those classified as on target. Yet, after five games, they’ve scored only four goals.
Now, like most statistics, they can be misleading or largely irrelevant when placed in context.
The Socceroos haven’t scored enough goals, but it’s clearly not through the number of shots being taken.
58 in five games is a large number.
What that statistic, and even shots on target fail to measure, is both the quality of the chances and ones that should’ve ended up in one column or the other but didn’t due to decision making.
The Socceroos should’ve beaten Saudi Arabia in Melbourne on Thursday night and to avoid a repeat performance against Bahrain they need to find a ruthlessness in-front of goal.
In Melbourne, Mitch Duke had a chance to shoot after a superb bit of pressing from Aiden O’Neill forced a turnover on the edge of the Saudi 18-yard box. Instead, the veteran striker decided to lay it off to Ajdin Hrustic who under hit his shot into the waiting hands of goalkeeper Ahmed Al-Kassar.
Similarly, Brandon Borrello found himself through on goal and one-on-one with the goalkeeper in the 84th minute. The Western Sydney Wanderers forward opted to square it to Riley McGree instead of finishing the chance himself. McGree was thwarted by a scrambling defender.
Those two moments were pivotal.
“It’s probably when you look at them all together, it probably looks like we need to have that more clinical edge,” Irvine said.
“Whether it’s someone taking more responsibility earlier without the hesitation or whether it’s squaring the ball in the right time for someone else to have an easier moment.
“There’s no right or wrong answer. It’s just about making sure we find that clinical edge individually and collectively to be able to put the ball in the back of the net.”
Craig Goodwin’s return from suspension should help their pursuit of goals.
The 32-year-old has seven goals to his name for his country and five of those have come in the space of 10-appearances in 2024.
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FIX THE EARLY WOBBLES
The team, by their own admission, have been poor in the first 20-minutes of games so far in the third round.
A lack of possession and a low percentage of passes completed have been consistent themes.
On occasion, it has come through their own doing while in other matches, an aggressive press from the opposition has induced multiple mistakes with the ball.
It has left the side chasing games once they’ve composed themselves, in what has proved to be crucial time lost.
Having a squad of 26 in Bahrain allows training to become match simulation.
A particular area of focus, according to Irvine, has been playing out from the back under pressure. Whether Bahrain will be bold enough to pressure Australia so high up the pitch remains to be seen, but the Socceroos are bracing for that possibility given how effective it has been against them so far.
“It is a question of sometimes the players on the pitch being able to identify solutions in those moments, about trying to find answers quicker,” he said.
“That was the main focus of training yesterday. Especially in and around our box and being calm and trying to find solutions in those areas. It was a topic of conversation post-game after Saudi and we’ve looked at it this week.”
RYAN BENCHING HAS PUT PLAYERS ON NOTICE
One of Tony Popovic’s first tactical decisions was to drop long time goalkeeper and captain Mat Ryan to the bench and promote Aston Villa’s Joe Gauci in his place.
Gauci, who has seen some gametime for Villa this season in the League Cup, has played the last three games for Australia. Ryan, who is yet to take the pitch for his new club Roma in Serie A, is enduring his longest ever run out of the starting side since becoming a mainstay in 2013.
According to Irvine, Ryan’s demotion has proved anyone, no matter how entrenched they may seem in the side, is capable of being dropped.
“It shows everybody how key your performances have to be and you have to be on it all the time to make sure you maintain your place in the team,” he said.
Ryan is now 32 which is still relatively young for a goalkeeper and will no doubt continue to fight for his place.
At the very least he’ll be an experienced sounding board for 24-year-old Gauci who is just taking his first steps at a large European club.
That is a journey Ryan knows well.
