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Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction & betting tips | ATP Dubai Open 2026

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Match Details

Fixture: Denis Shapovalov vs (Q) Pablo Carreno Busta

Date: Monday, February 22

Tournament: Dubai Tennis Championships

Round: First (Round of 32)

Category: ATP 500

Venue: Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Surface: Hard (outdoor)

Prize Money: $3,311,005

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN, TVA Sports, DAZN

Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview

Denis Shapovalov will face Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round of the Dubai Tennis Championships. Whoever wins will take on either eighth seed Jiri Lehecka or Qatar Open runner-up Arthur Fils in the second round of the Qatar Open. Shapovalov has won four of seven matches so far this season, most notably reaching the semifinals of the Dallas Open.

Carreno Busta has had a disappointing start to this season, winning just one of his five main-draw matches so far. The Spaniard entered the qualifiers of the Dubai Tennis Championships and booked his place in the main draw after wins over Botic van de Zandschulp and Luca Nardi.

Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta head-to-head

Carreno Busta currently leads the head-to-head at 5-2. Their last encounter came in the second round of the 2022 Paris Masters, with the Spaniard winning 7-6(2), 6-3, 6-4.

Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta odds

Player Moneyline Handicap Bets Total Games (Over and Under)
Denis Shapovalov -229 -3.5 (-105) Over 22.5 (-105)
Pablo Carreno Busta +200 +3.5 (-120) Under 22.5 (-121)

Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction

While Carreno Busta has a dominant head-to-head lead, he was ranked 14th in the world the last time he faced Shapovalov. The Canadian is ranked 88 places above the Spaniard in the ATP rankings and will enter the match as the favorite.

Shapovalov has an effective serve that fetched him 50 aces in four matches at the Dallas Open. However, those numbers may not tell the full story, as there were two matches in which he served a combined 39 aces, while he amassed just 11 aces in the other two fixtures. The Canadian loves to attack and will look to be consistent on his serve throughout the match.

Carreno Busta’s relentless playing style is the perfect foil to Shapovalov’s intensity, and he can always switch from defense to offense swiftly. The Spaniard will have to be at his best and will be eager for an opportunity to catch the Canadian off guard.

While Carreno Busta, on his day, is a formidable competitor, his current form suggested that Shapovalov should be able to come out on top and reach the second round in Dubai for the first time since his semifinal run in 2022.

Pick: Shapovalov to win in straight sets,

Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta betting tips

Tip 1: Shapovalov to save at least three break points.

Tip 2: Match to last two sets.

Tip 3: Shapovalov to serve less than ten aces.