When the FIFA World Cup groups were drawn in December last year, all four teams in Group D seemed satisfied with their opponents.
Co-hosts the United States were practically cheering after being grouped with Australia, Paraguay and Turkiye; on CBS News, television analyst Jamie Watson called it “a dream draw” because America were highest-ranked nation in the group at 17th.
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“If you believe in the soccer gods, you should be thanking them,” former American international Alexi Lalas said on Fox Sports.
“This is not just a good group, this is a great group, and this is a group that you should expect this United States team, under Mauricio Pochettino, to win and go through.”
Meanwhile, Australian coach Tony Popovic was satisfied with the Socceroos’ draw, acknowledging that his opponents would feel the same way. Anyone could beat anyone.
“We feel like everyone else in the group, it is a group we can get out of,” Popovic said in December.
“I’m sure every nation looks at the teams and says we’re a chance and we are no different.”
Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro also considered it “a very evenly-matched group”.
“The differences between the teams will make it a very close competition,” he said.
“The whole group will be at a very high level of parity. That raises expectations for all four teams to advance in the competition, but any mistake can knock you out.”
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The Socceroos will feel confident they can progress to the round of 32; courtesy of the tournament’s new structure, a victory during the group stage almost guarantees qualification for the knockouts.
ESPN predicted that Australia had a 64 per cent chance of advancing, and Popovic has warned their upcoming opponents not to underestimate the scrappy Socceroos.
“Anyone that underestimates us will get a rude shock when it comes to those group games,” Popovic said.
“We’re always deemed as the underdog or the team that will be fighting for the bottom spot, and we have an opportunity through our actions and our performances and results to show that that can be different.
“And that’s what’s exciting for us, and that’s the challenge that awaits.”
UNITED STATES
Former United States footballer Mike Grella made headlines in December last year when he called America’s World Cup match against Australia a “lay-up”.
“Take nothing away from the Socceroos, they’ve always been competitive and good – but they stumbled a little during qualifying and were not so impressive,” he said on CBS Sports.
“This is an amazing first team to have for the US.”
He doubled down on his comments in May, declaring: “If we can’t beat them, we shouldn’t go to the World Cup.
“If USA can’t beat Australia in a football match, stay home.”
American football great Landon Donovan, who represented the United States on 157 occasions, tipped the Socceroos to finish bottom of Group D, also accusing Popovic of “smugness”.
“Thanks for coming, Aussies,” he said.
“And your smug coach, you can get back on the Qantas airplane and head back home pal.
“He just had this smugness about him. I can’t wait, I wish I was on the field, I want to play these guys.”
Donovan added: “They’re a solid team, they’re hard to play against, this is not going to be some blowout, but it’s a team I think we should beat.”
Speaking on his State of the Union podcast, Lalas suggested the Australian squad was too weak to go deep in the tournament, predicting the Socceroos would be relying heavily on goalkeeper Mat Ryan.
“This is an average team by any measure, and certainly not a great team,” he said.
“This is a team that is going to look to frustrate most of the opponents… but they are going to struggle to score goals and maintain possession of the ball.
“They are going to have to adjust, and I think they will default into a very defensive type of team.
“They have a great legend in goals in Maty Ryan, a wonderful goalkeeper. I think he is going to have to stand on his head at different times.”
USA a ‘lay-up’ to beat Socceroos?! | 01:53
The Athletic’s Henry Bushnell described Australia’s recent performances as “passive” and “uninspiring”, analysing Popovic’s defence formations.
“Australia love a low block under Popovic and while results have improved, the disjointed nature of ball progression through a 3-4-2-1 formation often made performances uninspiring,” Bushnell penned.
“Since qualification was secured, Popovic has opted for a 5-4-1 that has looked even more passive, but there has been better fluidity on the counter, too, showing clear development in play and an awareness of what they could face come the summer.”
Television analyst Roger Bennett provided the harshest criticism of Australia’s chance of knockout qualification, suggesting that Turkey was the only nation in Group D that posed a threat to the United States.
“When we were drawn in Group D, with Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey – who are actually a bloody football team – we cheered, we laughed,” he said on ESPN’s First Take.
“We thought, ‘Oh my lord, this is weak group, we can get out of this and dominate.’
“If we do not get out of that group, it is a national tragedy, and there should be an inquiry at government level.”
Asked about the reaction coming out of the United States, Socceroos icon John Aloisi also cautioned against underestimating the Australians.
“After listening to the way they’re talking, they’re putting fuel on the fire and that’s dangerous with us because we love that,” he said.
“We love to be the underdogs.
“We love people underestimating us. So I know that our team and the whole nation will be behind us, especially against the US.”
Elsewhere, USA coach Mauricio Pochettino called the Australian team “competitive”, acknowledging the Socceroos did “really, really well” during the qualifying process.
“Australia is going to be difficult,” he told Fox Sports.
TURKIYE
Turkiye was the last team to qualify for the group, but they’re arguably the strongest nation on paper, with their squad headlined by Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz.
Coach Vincenzo Montella praised the Socceroos ahead of the tournament, acknowledging Australia’s World Cup experience and disciplined style of play.
The Italian manager also revealed that Turkiye chose North Macedonia as one of the team’s warm-up opponents because “they play similarly to Australia”,
“Australia is in their seventh World Cup, they’re used to it,” Montella said.
“They’re a very compact and disciplined team.”
Ersan Gulum is more than qualified to discuss the Socceroos’ chances against Turkiye, having played for Australia at Under-23 level before switching allegiances to the land of his heritage.
Born and raised in Melbourne, Gulum played seven games for Turkiye, while he is currently president of NPL Victoria’s Hume City FC, the biggest Turkish club in Australia.
“Australia is going to be a well-drilled, organised team. That’s credit to Tony Popovic. There’s something about them, definitely,” he recently told the Sydney Morning Herald.
“Popa’s done an amazing job. He’s got them playing disciplined football. It’s not going to be easy to break them down – every team that plays Australia is going to (find it) tough.”
Socceroos ready for World Cup heat | 00:48
Gulum declared that Turkey won’t be looking forward to playing the Socceroos, who he predicted would grind down their opponent before striking at the right moment, seeing the merit in Popovic’s back-five formation.
“When Australia plays defensive, they tire them down mentally, physically, they get the opposition frustrated,” Gulum said.
“Then they look to leave more holes in their backline because they’re trying to score, right? And then you put on these key players that are fresh, young and explosive.
“He’s embedding that into the team, and it’s working.”
PARAGUAY
Paraguay, having qualified for the World Cup for the first time in 16 years, are no pushovers, progressing to the quarter-finals during the 2010 edition of the tournament.
“It’s going to be something beautiful in that moment, not just for me, but also for my family and for all the Paraguayan fans, and for anyone who’s been with us through all the tough moments,” Paraguay midfielder Miguel Almirón said of the nation’s long-awaited World Cup return.
“There are going to be a lot of emotions at that moment. We take it on with responsibility, because we know so many people are depending on us.”
In December last year, Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro likened Australia’s playing style to that of Asian powerhouses Japan and Korea.
“If I want to find a point of comparison, even though no two teams are ever exactly alike, I get the feeling that our past experience of playing against Japan and Korea gives us a strong indication of what Australia might be like,” Alfaro said.
Alfaro was also confident Paraguay can go deep into the knockouts courtesy of the team’s “DNA, intensity and clean sheets”.
Socceroos draw with Switzerland | 01:56
Australia has never lost to Paraguay across five international matches, their most recent encounter being a friendly in 2010.
South American broadcaster DSports declared the Socceroos were “not a true powerhouse” despite the team’s discipline and quick transitions.
“Australia arrives with a recognisable approach,” the publication wrote.
“The team favours a direct style of football. They don’t need long periods of possession to create danger. They wait for openings, exploit high defensive lines, and look for through balls to launch quick attacks.”
Popovic described Paraguay’s side as “very disciplined, very organised, very fit, a tough opponent”. Ironically, the 52-year-old’s final match for the Socceroos came against Paraguay in 2006.
“They are a fantastic team,” Popovic said of Paraguay, ranked No. 40 in the world.
“They have qualified for the World Cup, they’re only a point off second place so it was a very close qualifying campaign.
“I’m excited that we can play them.”