Last season, the Houston Rockets finished 41-41 and gave the Golden State Warriors a run for their money for the last play-in spot.
Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green made leaps toward stardom, and the organization successfully transitioned from a chaotic and rudderless collective of raw talent to a more mature team with a clear vision under intimidating head coach Ime Udoka.
This marked the progression from phase one to phase two of Houston’s post-James Harden rebuild.
The tricky part of a rebuild is making the jump to phase three: championship contender status. Many franchises never complete the transition. The first- and second-round playoff graveyards are littered with franchises that had big dreams but couldn’t get over the hump. Think of the John Wall-Bradley Beal era in Washington or the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert era in Utah.
The conundrum is whether to opt for organic growth or to make a high-risk, high-reward gamble.
Patience can work if the players on the team develop into superstars. For example, the Warriors opted against trading Klay Thompson for Kevin Love in the summer of 2014. The following season, Stephen Curry emerged as the greatest shooter in NBA history (with Thompson not far behind him), and Draymond Green turned into the best small-ball center of the era.
However, being patient doesn’t always yield great results — look no further than the New Orleans Pelicans, who have hesitated to make a huge move during the Zion Williamson-Brandon Ingram era but have only won two playoff games in five seasons.
The “all-in” method can also bear fruit if you make the right trade at the right time. In the summer of 2019, the Lakers traded Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and lots of draft capital to New Orleans for Anthony Davis. A summer later, they were raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the Orlando bubble.
But this method can also fail spectacularly — look no further than L.A.’s other team that summer. The Clippers traded their draft capital and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City for Paul George but only won three playoff series in the next five seasons.
This summer, the Rockets added to their collection of youthful talent by selecting Reed Sheppard with the third pick in the draft. Sheppard lit up the Summer League, flashing limitless three-point range, great pick-and-roll decision-making and high-level playmaking potential as a lead ball handler.
Houston’s roster now has seven players on rookie contacts who have a chance to be very good or great — Sengun, Green, Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore and Tari Eason. The Rockets also have six veterans who are deserving of rotation minutes, including Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams.
Most NBA rotations are eight or nine deep. The Rockets are 13 deep. Now, this is a good “problem” to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless. There are too many players deserving of minutes and not enough minutes to go around.
Instead of allowing frustration to boil over and inhibit their development, the Rockets should leap to phase three with a high-risk, high-reward consolidation trade for a superstar. There are already breadcrumbs indicating something big is coming because they have batted their eyelashes at Kevin Durant.
Houston is under the first and second salary-cap aprons, so it has no trade restrictions. Plus, the Rockets own most of their first-round picks as well as some of Phoenix’s firsts and swap rights. The Rockets are as ready as any team to pounce on the first superstar to be made available.
If the Suns stumble out of the gates, Houston can package VanVleet, Sengun and a pick for Durant. Likewise, if the Pelicans falter and Houston wants Williamson and CJ McCollum, it can package VanVleet, Thompson and Sengun, and the trade works.
The same goes for a potential deal for Jimmy Butler (Heat), Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) or whichever disgruntled superstar becomes available. VanVleet’s contract and any number of young players and/or picks will get almost any deal done.
This situation seems ripe for a huge trade, so don’t be surprised when the Rockets try to blast their way into the upper echelon of the league this season.