Some players are overperforming early in the Major League Baseball schedule and are due to regress.
With roughly 10 percent of the season completed, here’s our fool’s gold team for the National League West. (All statistics are through Sunday. )
Arizona Diamondbacks | LHP Jalen Beeks
Signed to a one-year, $1.25M deal in the offseason, the 31-year-old southpaw has played lights-out so far (three hits, one run in 10.1 innings, 0.87 ERA). However, history indicates it won’t last.
Now in his seventh big-league season, Beeks has a career ERA of 4.30 and WHIP of 1.397 (well above his current mark of 0.536). Expect him to follow a familiar pattern in his career in which batters have struggled against him early, leading to a career .198 opponent batting average in March and April. However, after a career .214 opponent batting average in May, the number jumps dramatically, with opponents hitting no less than .269 against him the rest of the season.
Colorado Rockies | IF Kyle Farmer
Farmer is one of the few feel-good stories for the Rockies, hitting .349 through his first 14 games and posting an OPS+ of 142 (league average is 100).
Those numbers are well above Farmer’s career averages of .252 and 88, respectively, indicating the nine-year MLB veteran may be due for a regression soon.
Farmer has had consistent playing time at second base with Thairo Estrada sidelined by a right wrist fracture. Once Estrada returns in May, when Farmer is likely to be pushed into more of a utility role, his numbers may slide.
Los Angeles Dodgers | CF Tommy Edman
Edman’s six home runs through the team’s first 17 games are eye-catching. He has never hit more than 13 homers in a season, doing it twice for the St. Louis Cardinals (2022 in 153 games and 2023 in 137). His early power surge is great for the Dodgers (and Edman’s fantasy baseball owners), but it’s unlikely to last.
San Diego Padres | RHP Nick Pivetta
Signed in the offseason to a four-year, $55M deal, Pivetta has dominated through his first three starts, posting a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings. He has been especially overpowering at home, starting his Padres career with 14 shutout innings (14 K’s and one walk).
Pivetta, however, has looked more human away from San Diego, giving up three runs and six hits in three innings April 5 against the Chicago Cubs.
With a career ERA of 4.71, Pivetta probably will slide as the season continues. He has career ERAs of 5.11 in July (186.2 innings) and 6.02 in August (163 innings).
San Francisco Giants | RF Mike Yastrzemski
The 34-year-old outfielder is off to a solid start, joining Jung Hoo Lee as the only Giants with a batting average at .300 or above through the team’s first 14 games. Yastrzemski’s .300 average, however, is well above his career average of .240, and his OPS+ of 185 towers over his career OPS+ of 115.
The hot start falls in line with Yastrzemski’s career track at the plate, as he has hit .260 in March and April throughout his seven-year career. However, his average drops to .244 and .221 in May and June, respectively, indicating another dive could be coming soon.