Sep 20, 2026; San Jose, California, USA; Bay FC forward Karlie Lema (5) is congratulated by teammates after she scored a goal against Racing Louisville FC during the second half at PayPal Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images
Three weeks to go and the National Women’s Soccer League playoff race has winnowed considerably, as the league’s lesser lights have proceeded to play themselves out of a shot at November soccer. Some did it early and loudly (Chicago) while some managed to hold on just a bit longer thanks to short-lived spurts of form (Louisville, Bay). One even rode a new manager bounce to four whole points in two games before a chaotic home loss finally put their dreams to bed (Houston).
We’ll come onto Houston at a later date, but for now, let us begin The Eliminated, a series of autopsies of the clubs already on the beach: what went wrong, what went right, and how long the road is to get back to the promised land. We’ll compare preseason expectations to current reality, using an average of two different projection models: a player-performance-based model from American Soccer Analysis and an historical team performance model from Trevor Larner.
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