The New York Knicks found out who their Eastern Conference Finals opponent is on Sunday when the Cleveland Cavaliers blew out the Detroit Pistons in Game 7 of the East semifinals.
Before the series tips on Tuesday, here are five keys that will help decide which team advances to the NBA Finals.
Which stars deliver?
Sometimes, basketball is complex. Other times, it’s as simple as which stars deliver. Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson is averaging 27.4 points per game on 48.5 percent shooting (40.9 percent on three-pointers) in 10 playoff games. He’s been one of the top isolation guards during the postseason, averaging 1.16 points per possession, which ranks seventh among qualified players. (h/t NBA.com)
Center Karl-Anthony Towns has also been outstanding in an increased role as a facilitator, already posting three triple-doubles during the first two rounds and averaging 6.6 assists per game, well above his career numbers.
Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell has long been one of the league’s top playoff performers and leads Cleveland with 25.6 points per game heading into the East finals. Since his 2017-18 rookie season, Mitchell has led the NBA with 36 30-point postseason games, one more than Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum. (h/t Stathead)
The Cavaliers escaped Round 2 against the Pistons despite guard James Harden scoring just nine points on 2-of-10 shooting in Game 7. After making 38 percent of his field goals during the seven-game series, he must be much more efficient for Cleveland to emerge victorious.
Front-court battle
Towns’ all-around game has been on display, but he isn’t the only big man who will leave his imprint on the upcoming series. Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen came up huge in Game 7 against Detroit, scoring 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting. He’s averaging 1.9 blocks per game in the postseason, and that interior presence will be massive against New York, which has taken a league-high 39.7 percent of its shot attempts at the rim since the end of the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass.
Cavs power forward Evan Mobley has also settled in nicely after an up-and-down start to the postseason, finishing the second round with his second 20-point double-double of the playoffs.
New York’s offensive rhythm
The Knicks have been breathtaking to watch on offense, ranking second in both scoring (120.4 points per game) and assists (26.2 per game) during the postseason while shooting a league-high 51.7 percent, including 40.8 percent from beyond the arc.
Their strength, sharing the ball, has often led to great looks, with NBA.com data showing they’ve taken the highest percentage of open field-goal attempts (34.5 percent) among playoff teams while also making them at the highest clip (48.4 percent). The Cavaliers’ ability to not only close out quickly on shooters but also restrict passing lanes and disrupt that offensive rhythm will be crucial. New York has shot 42.2 percent on catch-and-shoot threes during the first two rounds, while Cleveland has allowed an average of 23.4 quick-release three-point tries per game during the playoffs, with opponents making them at a 40.2 percent clip, the league’s second-highest rate.
Offensive rebounding
Among remaining teams, the Knicks lead with a defensive rebound rate of 79 percent through two rounds, limiting opponents to a playoff-low 11.9 second-chance points, per NBA.com data. That sets up a battle of strengths against the Cavaliers, who have the highest offensive rebound rate (30.1 percent) of the four conference finalists. New York has also been effective at attacking the offensive glass, and with possessions at a premium, whichever team can get more shot attempts per trip down the court will put itself at an advantage.
Can the Cavaliers protect the basketball?
Cleveland has been haphazard with ball security, Harden alone committing 31 turnovers in the Eastern Conference semis. According to NBA.com stats, the Cavs have given up a league-high 22.1 points off turnovers per game these playoffs
While the Knicks haven’t operated in transition often, their offense is lethal when it has, leading playoff teams with an average of 1.33 points per possession. If Cleveland is going to upset New York, it must value its touches. Otherwise, the Knicks could run away with their first Eastern Conference title this century.