The GIST: The sixth annual Commissioner’s Cup final tips off tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET featuring a pair of perennial juggernauts: the NY Liberty and Las Vegas Aces, who topped the standings after conference group play to punch their tickets. Consider your Tuesday night plans made.
- The in-season tourney’s title tilt doesn’t count towards regular-season records, but the $500K prize pool certainly ups the ante — as does this rivalry’s spicy history.
🗽 Why the Liberty will win: Recency bias. The seafoam superstars earned an 11-point win vs. the Aces just last week, stifling Vegas’ offense for much of the game. Even though the Liberty haven’t had a healthy roster for most of the season, two-time WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart’s proven time and again that she’s all the Big Apple needs.
🃏 Why the Aces will win: Adjustments. Head coach Becky Hammon knew NY’s defense would give Vegas trouble in the rivals’ first battle of 2026 — every shot was a struggle for one of the W’s best three-point shooting teams. Expect the Aces to shoot the ball better and for Hammon’s new and improved gameplan to give four-time MVP A’ja Wilson more space to operate.
🏆 The Cup curse: Since the first Commissioner’s Cup in 2021, only one team has won both the in-season tourney and the league championship in the same season: the 2022 Aces. It’s a small sample size, but it sure seems like a curse similar to the one surrounding the NHL’s President’s Trophy. Is it a Cup or a crystal ball?