Denny Hamlin enters the revamped Chase format as the No. 1 seed and the favorite to win his first NASCAR Cup Series championship (-110, per DraftKings).
After all, the 64-race winner — good for ninth all-time — boasts the second-most wins in the series (four), leads the series in top-fives (14) and is tied for the most top-10s (17). Of those four wins, Hamlin won three of them consecutively for the first time in his career and also tacked on an All-Star Race win for good measure.
As the Chase makes its return in Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 (5 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the top-16 drivers in the series will begin the 10 weeks to crown a champion, with the one who accumulates the most points in those remaining races hoisting the Bill France Cup.
While the re-seeded field trims Hamlin’s points lead from 89 following Daytona to just 25 over Ryan Blaney, the title still runs through him if the regular season is any indication.
Denny Hamlin in prime position for first Cup Series title
For starters, it is difficult to find a track over the final 10 weeks that Hamlin will not be a threat at. Aside from the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway on Oct. 25, where he only has one top-10 finish in the last five races, there is no clear hurdle standing in Hamlin’s way, maybe aside from himself and his No. 11 team.
Even before the advent of the playoff elimination format that was in existence from 2014-25, Hamlin has experienced multiple near-misses fighting for the championship.
In 2010, he saw a 63-point advantage disappear in the penultimate race at Phoenix Raceway when a fuel miscalculation necessitated a late pit stop and dropped him to 12th in the running order, paving the way for Jimmie Johnson to chip away at the deficit and win his fifth consecutive title one week later at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Despite winning the pole and running second with 60 laps to go in the 2019 title race, Hamlin was forced back to pit road after a piece of tape that his crew put on the nose to improve handling proved to be too large and caused the engine to overheat.
Ross Chastain’s infamous “Hail Melon” wall-ride in Turns 3-4 at Martinsville Speedway in 2022 leaped him ahead of Hamlin by four points to advance to the title race, while a series of misfortunes to begin the Round of 8 in 2023 kept him eight points from advancing.
Then there’s last season when Hamlin was three laps away from the elusive championship until William Byron blew a tire and sent the race to overtime. On four tires to fellow title contender Kyle Larson’s two, Hamlin could not overcome the lost track position and came away empty-handed again.
However, with the elimination of the playoff format and a more traditional approach to the final 10 races, there is no better opportunity than now for Hamlin.
He has at least one victory at each track and multiple wins at eight of them. In fact, Hamlin has been so consistent this season that his only finish outside the top 10 at a non-drafting-style track or road course was an 11th-place finish in the spring Darlington race.
With winning even more crucial in the Chase format, all eyes will be on the top-seeded Hamlin. He has come close so many times, but if he and his pit crew do not beat themselves, the 2026 title should run through him.