Breaking down the first round of the WNBA playoffs | The GIST

🐱 Why the Lynx will win: This team was already a powerhouse, and then rookie phenom Olivia Miles arrived. Now boasting a true point guard, the rest of the Lynx’s stars have benefitted: Both Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams are having their best seasons in Minnesota. Add in the brilliant coaching mind of Cheryl Reeve and a healthy Napheesa Collier, and it might be their year.

• ❌ Why they won’t: Depth. Unlike seasons past, Minnesota doesn’t have deep rotations. Yes, benches shorten in the playoffs, but all five starters averaged around 30 minutes a game (of a possible 40) in the regular season. Exhausted just thinking about it.

🗽 Why the Liberty will win: These perennial contenders know how to win when it counts. NY dealt with the injury bug — they fielded 13 different starting lineups this season — and that lack of consistency is a major reason the seafoam superstars are the No. 8 seed. Now fully healthy, bet against Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu at your own peril.

• ❌ Why they won’t: This Big Apple squad is ripe with potential, but that regular-season inconsistency left them with a spicy first-round matchup. The Lynx will undoubtedly strain a defense that allows 22.2 points in the fourth quarter, second-most among playoff teams.

🃏 Why the Aces will win: The unprecedented four-time MVP — full stop. So long as A’ja Wilson is hooping, the Aces are contenders. That said, a strong supporting cast is non-negotiable if they want to win four titles in five years. Enter: Jackie Young, who’s authoring the best statistical season of her career, and Chelsea Gray, whose point-gawd tendencies are well documented.

• ❌ Why they won’t: Much like the No. 1 seed Lynx, the defending champ Aces are top heavy. That talent shortage primarily affects their frontcourt, especially after a knee injury sidelined NaLyssa Smith for the rest of the season.

🥵 Why the Fever will win: Grab a cold compress because Indy’s offense has been scorching hot all season long. The Fever are averaging 96 points per game, making them the highest-scoring squad in WNBA history. The inimitable Kelsey Mitchell headlines their lethal three-pronged attack, along with being the smartest person in the room and a covergirl.

• ❌ Why they won’t: Their defense is objectively awful — even offensemaxxing has its limits, especially in a postseason with this much parity. The Fever allow a whopping 90.5 points per game, the worst mark (by far) among playoff teams.

💭 Why the Dream will win: They roster elite hoopers like Angel Reese, Allisha Gray, and Rhyne Howard, pairing that trifecta with the playoff experience of midseason acquisition and two-time WNBA champ DeWanna Bonner. Their biggest strength though is their ability to generate extra possessions, hauling in a league-best 10.6 offensive rebounds per game.

• ❌ Why they won’t: The Dream present an intriguing defensive conundrum — they lead the league in steals with around nine per game, but if they don’t get that takeaway, they struggle stacking stops. That high-risk, high-reward approach might not translate to playoff success.

🔮 Why the Mystics will win: The youngest-ever roster to make the WNBA playoffs has nothing to lose. No one expected the District to ascend this quickly, yet second-year star Sonia Citron, draftmate Kiki Iriafen, and double-double aficionado Shakira Austin continue to wreak havoc on more experienced squads.

• ❌ Why they won’t: The ’Stics show their age in one major category: turnovers. They averaged the most of any team this season, gifting the ball to their opponents 14.7 times per game. That simply won’t cut it in the playoffs.

💜 Why the Valkyries will win: Rumor has it defense wins championships, and the Valks own the league’s best D. Anchored by the trio of Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams, and Kiah Stokes, Golden State double teams, traps, and flips turnovers into transition buckets on the daily. All gas, no brakes in Ballhalla.

• ❌ Why they won’t: Their half-court offense. The Valks struggle to generate points when they aren’t scoring on the fast break. That’s partially due to their lack of a bona fide superstar — instead they rely on team balance and deep rotations.

🪽 Why the Wings will win: Dallas’ offensive firepower is elite, whether it’s MVP candidate Paige Bueckers, who’s been transcendent in her second season, clutch-as-they-come guard Arike Ogunbowale, or triple-double queen Jessica Shepard. But their most compelling argument is that they share the basketball incredibly well, averaging a league-best 22.3 assists per game.

• ❌ Why they won’t: Their defense is…concerning, especially following 2026 No. 1 draft pick and defensive linchpin Azzi Fudd’s season-ending knee injury. They sorely lack rim protection with only Awak Kuier averaging more than one block per game.