Time is running out. Options are running out. For Arsenal, this has not been a straightforward summer.
It was one that promised so much. They are Premier League champions but have struggled to take advantage of that. Sure, they have signed Christos Tzolis, Bruno Guimaraes and Ezri Konsa, but that major marquee arrival in attack continues to elude them.
Andrea Berta and the Kroenkes have tried. They were in talks to get Morgan Rogers but rightfully declined to match Chelsea’s £117m bid.
They thought they had a genuine shot at signing Vinicius Junior, only for the Brazilian to remain in Madrid. Other options such as Bradley Barcola and Iliman Ndiaye have now also passed them by. They are signing for Liverpool and Tottenham respectively.
So, it looks as though it’ll be Julian Alvarez or nothing for Mikel Arteta.
Why Arsenal have prioritised Julian Alvarez over other forwards
Supporters may well criticise the club for a lack of action this summer but very few transfer windows have ever played out like this.
You’ve had players like Elliot Anderson and Sandro Tonali both moving for £100m plus figures. Arsenal were also told to pay £117m, a record for an English player, to lure Rogers away from Aston Villa.
It doesn’t take a genius to work out why the Gunners pulled out of that move, nor does it take a genius to work out why they did not really end up pursuing Barcola. He is heading to Liverpool for a £120m fee.
Both players would have added a huge amount to this Arsenal side but in reality, they are not worth the money both sides have paid.
Sure, Barcola scored 21 goals and registered 21 assists in 2024/25 but last term very much indicated that he needs to refine his game, ending it with 13 goals and seven assists.
Likewise, Rogers is still an inconsistent figure, scoring 14 and assisting 11 last season. They are both young and will no doubt improve but Arsenal have been in win-now mood over the last year, hence completing transfers for Guimaraes and Konsa in the last month.
Alvarez is very much cut from a similar cloth. Aged 26, he’s approaching his prime, he’s proven in English football and, as international colleague Franco Mastantuono put it, the Argentine is “one of the best players in the world”. Barcola and Rogers are not at that level yet.
This is a player with 29 goals for Atletico in 2024/25 and another 20 in 2025/26. Arsenal needed a winger first and foremost but the general sense for a good few years now is that they need an elite-level striker too.
The problem is, Alvarez is unlikely to come. Arsenal are ready to pay what Atleti want but the player is still dreaming of Barcelona in the final few days of the transfer window.
Arsenal could sign £60m Alvarez alternative
In all honesty, there are not very many options left for the Gunners now. Barcola and Ndiaye have both agreed moves to other clubs in the last few days while another long-term target in Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz has picked up an injury.
Other options could be Yildiz’s teammate Jonathan David. Nico Williams of Athletic Club has also been linked at various stages this summer.
Well, perhaps a more realistic option could be Lille sensation Matias Fernandez-Pardo. The 21-year-old has been the subject of interest from Newcastle United in recent days who are pushing for a move but according to reports, Arsenal may well be at the table too.
That’s according to Caught Offside, who report this weekend that the Gunners are long-term admirers of the player and that they have opened talks with the player’s representatives regarding a move.
It’s suggested that for any deal to progress, the Ligue 1 side want at least £60m to part company with their star forward.
So, what is Fernandez-Pardo all about? Well, he’s cut from a similar cloth to Arsenal’s leading target Alvarez. How? Well, like the Argentine, he’s not an out and out centre-forward.
Last term, the young Belgian played as a striker on 16 occasions and scored seven goals, while registering a further four assists. Pardo, like Alvarez, is versatile enough to play elsewhere.
He played three times on the right flank for Lille last season and featured 13 times from the left side, scoring just once and supplying two assists.
With eight goals and seven assists all told, this is not the elite level ceiling raiser that Arsenal fans have been craving all summer long.
Yet, it would provide them with a replacement for the Saudi-bound Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus, who is set to leave before Tuesday’s deadline.
Where else does the young forward compare to Alvarez? We’ve crunched the numbers for you.
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Fernandez-Pardo vs Alvarez: 25/26 league stats |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Stats (per 90 mins) |
Pardo |
Alvarez |
|
Non-penalty goals |
0.23 |
0.28 |
|
Shots |
2.57 |
2.56 |
|
Open play expected assists |
0.18 |
0.16 |
|
Open play big chances created |
0.19 |
0.43 |
|
Expected threat in build-up |
0.36 |
0.41 |
|
Successful dribbles |
1.36 |
1.23 |
|
Progressive carries |
3.82 |
1.99 |
|
Progressive passes |
1.89 |
2.56 |
As we can see, there is a clear desire to get involved as much as possible. Compared to Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz, Fernandez-Pardo and Alvarez are more involved in the build-up phases of play.
Expected Threat (xT) is a metric that quantifies how much a player’s actions (like a pass or carry) increase their team’s probability of scoring.
For expected threat in build-up, Gyokeres registered 0.21 and Havertz 0.32. Thus, Arsenal would be getting their hands on a player who is excellent at connecting play in the final third.
There are also similarities with regards to chance creation. Last season, the two forwards in question tallied up nearly an identical rate of expected assists from open play. They were close for successful dribbles and nearly identical for shots per 90 minutes too.
Alvarez is quite clearly the better and more prolific player but with Fernandez-Pardo five years the South American’s junior, perhaps Arsenal could get ahead of the curve here to sign a player with immense promise rather than the finished article.